Researchers estimate that, over the next 15 years, the incidence of cervical cancer will remain stable or decrease in 19 countries, and cervical cancer mortality will remain stable or decrease in 26 countries. The researchers reported these predictions in Cancer.
The study included data for 31 countries derived from the GLOBOCAN database, the United Nations Development Program, the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents Plus database, and the World Health Organization mortality database.
The researchers assessed the correlation between cervical cancer burden and the Human Development Index (HDI), which is a measure of average socioeconomic development that accounts for life expectancy, education, and gross national income.
A higher HDI was significantly associated with a lower incidence of cervical cancer (r =-.56) and decreased mortality from cervical cancer (r =.69) over the most recent 10-year period for which data were available (P <.001 for both).
The researchers also assessed trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality for the 31 countries over the most recent 10-year period.
The incidence of cervical cancer increased in 5 countries, remained stable in 12 countries, and decreased in 14 countries. The greatest decreases in incidence occurred in Slovenia, Brazil, Colombia, and Chile.
Cervical cancer mortality remained stable in 12 countries, decreased in 18 countries, and increased in 1 country. The greatest decreases in mortality occurred in New Zealand, the Republic of Korea, and Denmark.
Lastly, the researchers predicted future trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality over the next 15 years for 27 of the 31 countries.
The incidence of cervical cancer was predicted to increase in 8 countries, remain stable in 10 countries, and decrease in 9 countries. The greatest decreases were predicted for Slovenia, Brazil, and Chile.
Cervical cancer mortality was predicted to increase in 1 country, remain stable in 16 countries, and decrease in 10 countries. The greatest decreases in mortality were predicted for New Zealand, Denmark, and Switzerland.
“Globally, cervical cancer incidence and mortality rates were negatively correlated with socioeconomic development,” the researchers wrote. “Further studies are required to clarify the factors contributing to increase and strategies that work to decrease the incidence and mortality of cervical cancer.”
Lin S, Gao K, Gu S, et al. Worldwide trends in cervical cancer incidence and mortality, with predictions for the next 15 years. Cancer. Published August 9, 2021. doi:10.1002/cncr.33795