The following article features coverage from the 2021 ASCO Quality Care Symposium. Click here to read more of Cancer Therapy Advisor’s conference coverage.

Several factors may help oncologists identify patients with metastatic breast cancer who are near the end of life, according to a study presented at the 2021 American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO) Quality Care Symposium.

Researchers set out to identify factors associated with 30-day mortality and develop a model that could predict 30-day mortality in patients with metastatic breast cancer.

The team analyzed data on 586,801 encounters with 9270 patients from the CancerLinQ Discovery database. The patients were separated into a training cohort (70%) and a test cohort.

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The researchers found the following factors to be the greatest predictors of an increased risk of 30-day mortality (P <.05 for all):

  • Chemotherapy within the past year but not the past 30 days (odds ratio [OR], 1.92; 95% CI, 1.67-2.20)
  • Opiate use (OR, 1.71; 95% CI, 1.17-2.52)
  • High pain score without opiate use (OR, 1.27; 95% CI, 1.10-1.48).

The greatest predictors of lower odds of 30-day mortality were (P <.05 for all):

  • Body mass index change from baseline (OR, 0.28; 95% CI, 0.10-0.78)
  • Serum albumin levels (OR, 0.38; 95% CI, 0.31-0.45)
  • Performance status of 0 to 1 (OR, 0.73; 95% CI, 0.57-0.95).

The researchers developed a few candidate models for predicting 30-day mortality. The models’ prediction accuracy ranged from 70% to 89%, and the positive predictive values ranged from 31% to 77%.

The researchers’ next steps are to select a preferred model for clinical use and test it in the clinic.

Disclosures: Some study authors declared affiliations with biotech, pharmaceutical, and/or device companies. Please see the original reference for a full list of disclosures.

Read more of Cancer Therapy Advisor’s coverage of ASCO QCS 2021 by visiting the conference page.

Reference

Ray EM, Zhang X, Dunham L, et al. Development of a breast cancer-specific prognostic tool using CancerLinQ Discovery. J Clin Oncol. 2021;39:(suppl 28; abstr 275). doi:10.1200/JCO.2020.39.28_suppl.275

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ASCO QCS 2021 Breast Cancer